Water Intelligence Brief · Archive

Larimer County, CO

October 26, 2026

Larimer County Water Intelligence Brief

October 26, 2026 | Free-Tier Edition

Situation Summary

Flows on the Cache la Poudre are rising at both the Fort Collins and Timnath gauges this morning, while the Big Thompson at Loveland runs at a low but stable 5 cfs — together signaling a quiet late-October transition period for Larimer County irrigators winding down the season. With irrigation demand effectively over for most operations, the current operational question shifts to how Horsetooth Reservoir and Carter Lake — both physically in Larimer County and administered by Northern Water — are positioned heading into the winter storage window. Reservoir storage data and 7-day forecast details are available in the full brief.

Snowpack Conditions

The five SNOTEL stations monitoring Larimer County's headwaters reflect typical late-October conditions at most sites, though early-season accumulation is running below median where active snowpack exists. As background context, 2026 saw an anomalous March heat wave that drove meltout 4–6 weeks ahead of the historical median meltout date across these headwaters — that event is now past, and the basin enters winter from a position shaped by that early-season depletion.

Big Thompson headwaters (Rocky Mountain National Park corridor):

  • Bear Lake (9,490 ft): SWE 0.3", measured at 74% of the 0.4" median for this date. Snow depth reported at 0.0" — the station is recording water equivalent in the absence of measurable depth, suggesting thin, early-season consolidation. At 74% of median, this is modestly below normal for late October but not alarming at this stage of the season.
  • Willow Park (10,710 ft): SWE 0.2", at 25% of the 0.8" median. This is the more concerning reading for the Big Thompson corridor — Willow Park sits at a higher elevation where early-season snowpack accumulation should be further along. At 25% of median, accumulation is lagging. Snow depth is 0.0".

    • Cache la Poudre headwaters:

  • Joe Wright (10,900+ ft): SWE 0.8", at 80% of the 1.0" median. This is the strongest reading across all five stations and the most encouraging signal for the Poudre corridor. Joe Wright's 4.0" snow depth is the only station with measurable depth, indicating an early snowpack base is forming at elevation.
  • Deadman Hill: SWE 0.5", at 35% of the 1.4" median. The 2.0" snow depth is a positive signal, but the percent-of-median figure indicates accumulation is well behind pace for this station's location and elevation.
  • Hourglass Lake: SWE 0.1", at 20% of the 0.5" median. The lowest reading in the network. Like Bear Lake and Willow Park, snow depth is 0.0".

    • Taken together, the Poudre headwaters show a split: Joe Wright offers a relatively healthy early-season signal, while Deadman Hill and Hourglass Lake are running below median. The Big Thompson headwaters at Bear Lake and Willow Park are both below median, with Willow Park's 25% reading the more notable gap. It is early in the accumulation season and these readings carry high week-to-week variability — but the pattern warrants monitoring as November approaches.

    Streamflow Conditions

    Cache la Poudre River at Fort Collins: 237 cfs and rising as of October 26. This is the in-county gauge on Colorado's only federally designated Wild and Scenic River. A rising trend in late October can reflect a combination of factors including precipitation response and reduced upstream consumptive demand as irrigation season closes. Fort Collins Utilities municipal return flows contribute to the lower Poudre's baseflow, a feature of the urban-agricultural interface distinctive to Larimer County.

    Cache la Poudre River above Boxelder Creek near Timnath: 259 cfs and rising. The Timnath gauge sits near the Larimer-Weld county line and captures combined Poudre flow including contributions from Larimer County agricultural return flows and Fort Collins municipal returns. The 22 cfs increase from Fort Collins to Timnath reflects these additions along the lower corridor. Both Poudre gauges trending upward is consistent with the late-season pattern.

    Big Thompson River at Loveland: 5 cfs and stable. This is a characteristically low late-season reading on the Big Thompson's native flow component below Olympus Dam. The Loveland gauge captures both native Big Thompson hydrology and C-BT system releases — at 5 cfs in late October, this reflects end-of-season conditions with C-BT deliveries winding down. Loveland-area irrigators on the Big Thompson agricultural reach should confirm delivery status directly with Northern Water.

    Seasonal Guidance

  • Contact Northern Water (northernwater.org, Berthoud office) to confirm current Horsetooth Reservoir and Carter Lake storage status and any C-BT delivery season close-out notices affecting allotment holders.
  • Check with Colorado Division of Water Resources, Water Division 1 (Greeley office) for any active augmentation plan obligations or late-season administrative orders affecting Poudre or Big Thompson water rights.
  • Canal company members along the Poudre corridor — including Water Supply and Storage Company and North Poudre Irrigation Company — should verify end-of-season diversion accounting and storage carryover status with their respective companies.
  • Monitor NRCS SNOTEL station updates weekly through November as the Big Thompson and Poudre headwaters enter the primary accumulation window; Willow Park and Hourglass Lake readings will be early indicators of whether the basin recovers toward median.

    • Subscribe for the full brief including reservoir storage, weather forecasts, depletion analysis, and detailed operational recommendations.

    Data Sources: SNOTEL data through October 25, 2026; USGS streamflow data through October 26, 2026.

    Data Current As Of: October 26, 2026. Sourced from NRCS SNOTEL network (5 stations) and USGS National Water Information System (3 gauges).

    Important Disclaimers: This brief provides automated analysis for informational purposes only. Specific numerical claims have not been independently verified. Consult official sources including your local water district, Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District (Northern Water — headquartered in Berthoud, Larimer County; administers C-BT Project; Horsetooth Reservoir and Carter Lake data via northernwater.org or USBR HydroMet site HRT), City of Fort Collins Utilities (municipal Poudre diversions), and Colorado Division of Water Resources Water Division 1 (Greeley office) for regulatory decisions and water rights administration.

    Data & Disclaimers

    Sources: NRCS SNOTEL network · USGS National Water Information System · National Weather Service

    This brief provides automated analysis for informational purposes only. Consult official sources including your local water district and state Division of Water Rights for regulatory decisions. This document does not constitute legal, regulatory, or engineering advice.

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